The economic impact of geopolitical crises on international trade: An econometric approach using DiD, OLS, and GMM models

Abstract

This research examines the economic impact of geopolitical crises on international trade by analyzing changes in trade flows and strategic commodity prices during the period 2008–2023. The study relies on data from the World Bank, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and SESRIC, employing multiple econometric models including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Difference-in-Differences (DiD), and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The findings reveal that geopolitical crises such as economic sanctions, wars, and the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant negative effect on global trade flows, accompanied by sharp increases in oil, wheat, and natural gas prices. The study concludes that strong economic blocs, such as BRICS and the European Union, have played a crucial role in mitigating these negative effects, highlighting the importance of economic integration in addressing global disruptions.