Measuring and analyzing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on imports in Iraq for the period (2004 - 2023)

Abstract

Foreign trade is one of the basic sectors of any country's economy. It is of great importance in developing economic relations between countries worldwide, especially developed and developing countries, through the import and export of goods and services, both visible and invisible, and the movement of capital and gold trading. Foreign trade activities are usually carried out through the mechanism of linking the exchange rate of the local currency to foreign currencies. The importance of this study lies in highlighting the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against a basket of foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. These fluctuations directly affect the economy in general and the costs of importing goods and services in particular. This study aims to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Iraqi imports for the period 2004–2023. To achieve the study objective, the study relied on time series data and used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables in the long and short term. The study found a statistically significant positive relationship at the 5% level between the exchange rate and imports in the long term, which means that the rise in exchange rates in Iraq led to an increase in the volume of imports during the study period. based on these results, the study recommends the need to create a stable economic environment for the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, especially the US dollar, in addition to strengthening the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in controlling the official and parallel exchange rates to limit their negative impact on the increase in consumer imports.